Since home-price forecasts are the key to identifying opportunities, risks, and potential volatilities in future real estate markets, their accuracy is critical to success. Forecast accuracy depends on the right balance of data input, expertise of the analytics staff, and quality of the analytics toolset used to produce the results.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts is designed to optimize this balance, generating verifiably trustworthy monthly predictions of home-price movements at the national, state, county, CBSA, and ZIP code levels up to thirty years (360 months) into the future.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios help banks, investors, government entities, and others initiate or evaluate compliance with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Dodd-Frank Stress-Test (DFAST) regulations—or develop independent stress-testing regimens of their own. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios help you project Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ national CCAR supervisory home price scenarios out five years at the state, CBSA, and ZIP Code levels on a monthly basis—for single-family combined (SFC) and SFC-excluding-stressed homes.
Current, Complete Home Price Data
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts indexes are built from the same datasets as CoreLogic HPI—the most current and comprehensive available—with broad, deep coverage that leverages the full power of the industry-standard CoreLogic real estate databases. These datasets cover 7,400-plus ZIP codes, 1,300-plus counties, and 930-plus Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), in all 50 states (including non-disclosure) and the District of Columbia.
All data underlying CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are rigorously validated. Detailed CoreLogic HPI Forecasts model validation reports—including back-testing actuals versus forecasts, cumulative forecasting error at the CBSA level, and upper/lower 95% confidence intervals—are available to subscribers on request.
CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, and CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios let clients reduce collateral-based uncertainty in real estate markets, using proven repeat-sales index methodologies that utilize the most current and comprehensive data.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts—Features
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios help banks, investors, government entities, and others initiate or evaluate compliance with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and the Dodd-Frank Stress-Test (DFAST) regulations—or develop independent stress-testing regimens of their own.
Aligned with the national CCAR supervisory home price scenarios, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Stress-Testing Scenarios project those scenarios at the state, CBSA, and ZIP Code levels on a monthly basis—for single-family combined (SFC) and SFC-excluding-stressed homes.
Market Condition Indicators and Long-Term Fundamental Values
Market Condition Indicators, an analytical enhancement now available with base subscriptions to CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecasts at no additional cost, identifies whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or at value.
Available for more than 350 Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Market Condition Indicators is derived from long-term fundamental values—home-price “norms” based on the correlation of home prices with real disposable income per capita. Overvalued and undervalued markets are defined as those having a current home price index at least 10% above or 10% below those long-term fundamental values.
By identifying the relationship between a market’s long-term value and its current pricing, Market Condition Indicators help inform successful investment strategies and risk management decisions. The long-term CBSA fundamental values are also available to clients, letting you tighten or broaden value thresholds as your own business use warrants.
Both long-term fundamental values and Market Condition Indicators come at no increase in subscription fees.
Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are designed to predict the probability of a home price decline over a 12-month period. Every month, clients will receive data based on the latest economic and housing analytics, along with a probability for two price decline severities
Thirty-Year Forecast Horizon
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts predicts home price movements at national, state, county, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA), and ZIP code levels at monthly intervals—generating forecasts of likely home-price changes up to thirty years (360 months) in the future.
To generate these short- and long-term projections, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts combines the most comprehensive housing resale data with accurate modeling.
The resulting thirty-year forecast horizon provides segmented, highly accurate estimates of likely home-price movements—helping you understand and factor in future pricing risk today.
Trusted Data / Validated Models
All data underlying CoreLogic HPI Forecasts comes from our industry-leading real estate public records, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat sales transactions—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts model validation reports include:
- Back- and out-of-sample testing
- Cumulative forecasting error tracking and reporting
- 95%-confidence bands
Available quarterly, these reports are available on request at no additional charge to subscribers.
Deep, Broad Coverage, Including Non-Disclosure States
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts data covers:
- 7400+ ZIP codes
- 1300+ counties
- 930+ CBSAs
- 50 states (including non-disclosure) + DC
Two Tiers, Including Non-Distressed Transactions Tier
In order to control for the impact of REO and other distressed properties on future price trends, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts offers two tiers:
- Single-family combined
- Single-family combined, excluding distressed properties
Built on Rigorous Two-Stage Error-Correction Modeling Framework
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts is based on a well-regarded two-stage error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium house price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate.
Monthly Updates, with Brief Five-Week Lag Time
Monthly CoreLogic HPI Forecasts updates (released concurrently with the monthly CoreLogic HPI updates) provide you the fastest home-price projection information in the industry—complete home-price forecast datasets just five weeks after month’s end.
Available via Web Tool and FTP
Monthly CoreLogic HPI Forecasts indexes are available both via FTP or direct Web access.
Capital Markets Solutions
When capital market analytics include a home pricing component, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts can provide trustworthy pricing, performance, and valuation predictions up to thirty years into the future.Learn More
CoreLogic Market Risk Indicators
Get Insight into Possible Housing Price Changes Before they Happen. Market Risk Indicators – designed by the same CoreLogic data scientists who created our HPI and HPI ForecastsLearn More