Recession

November 7, 2022

Does the Housing Recession Tell Us Anything About the Prospects of ...

Housing declines are historically a harbinger for recessions, but does this mean that it a recession is imminent?

August 24, 2022

The Beginning of the End? Single-Family Investor Activity Takes a S...

The share of single-family home purchases made by investors dropped by 8 percentage points from Q1 to Q2, suggesting that these buyers may be more sensitive to interest rate increases than owner-occupied buyers

April 1, 2020

What is the Impact of a Recession on the Housing Market?

There is a widespread expectation that the US as well as the whole world have entered or will be in recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecast a more than 20% US GDP contraction for next quarter[1] . The International Monetary Fund declared a global recessio...

March 4, 2020

Is the Yield Curve Slope a Leading Indicator of the Housing Market?

One yield spread that is closely monitored by most economists is the difference between the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond and the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond. The typical shape of a yield curve has yields rising with bond term, that is, the 10-year-to-2-year spread is positive.  A...

March 1, 2019

Housing Recessions and Recoveries

Economic Observations, March 2019 Lately, it seems like the roof of the housing market might cave in. Several of the major housing market indicators have shown much volatility as of late. For instance, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell for seven straight months, new home sa...